College Football Morning: Week 1's Headliners

Florida and Miami in the wilderness; Georgia and Clemson on Chick-Fil-A's sparkling front lawn.

We’re hitting the swing of it now. It’s speeding up. By next Saturday, football season will be back at its full pace. The drumbeat accelerates. Soon, this will all be normal again.

A little bit on last night’s games below (I don’t want you to think we’ve forgotten them), and a good bit on Notre Dame, Texas A&M, LSU, and USC the next two days. We aren’t trying to neglect those marquee games. The opposite, in fact! Suffice it to say, those games are important both to this college football season and to the broader college football landscape, and we will discuss why and how and what to expect in future literature.

The four other headliners in Week 1:

Georgia vs. Clemson

It’ll be high noon in Atlanta, but the roof of Mercedes-Benz Stadium will be closed. If you told a Clemson or Georgia fan in the 90’s of a high noon game on Labor Day Saturday, I imagine they’d picture a different type of environment than the luxurious scene which awaits these teams. Perfect FieldTurf. A dazzling ceiling designed to call to mind the Pantheon as famously architecturally-minded northeast Georgians find their seats. Air temperatures hovering between 70 and 72 degrees, with plenty of stadium staff on hand to attempt to keep up with the demands placed on the washrooms. There’ll even be Chick-Fil-A available to those who want it. The Mercedes-Benz Stadium location—it’s in Section 123—is famously closed on Sundays, just like the rest of the chain, meaning Falcons fans often must find their sweet teas and nuggets somewhere else. On Saturdays, the Section 123 Chick-Fil-A is open for business.

Georgia is expected to beat Clemson. Georgia is expected to win comfortably. Carson Beck is supposed to lead a vaunted Bulldog offense past an outmatched Tiger defense while Mykel Williams causes Cade Klubnik’s latest batch of headaches in Clemson’s offensive backfield.

What if that’s not how it goes?

I share the suspicion of many that Georgia might stomp Dabo Swinney’s program here. I assume, like most, that Georgia is the better team. But Clemson finished last year stronger than they started it, and Garrett Riley’s had another offseason to un-break the offense. The speed, size, and strength is certainly there, with the Tigers fifth in 247Sports’s Talent Composite. Fifth isn’t second, and the Tigers shouldn’t be expected to be on par with Georgia, but can they compete? If both sides play to their level of physical ability, yes.

That brings us to what this really means for Clemson. Ever since Trevor Lawrence graduated, Clemson has been in decline. Really, it may have started before that, with 2019’s team likely not as good as 2018’s historically dominant group. Can Clemson turn that around? Or have they merely stabilized, plateauing at a new, lower normal?

There are questions for Georgia too, of course. We continue to wonder about the Bulldogs’ focus. We continue to ask if this culture is still ready for big games. It’s possible Georgia will struggle to play to the level of talent present on its roster. But we have more questions about Clemson. Can Swinney’s program once again hang with the best in the country? Or is it merely an ACC contender again, as it was before those glorious 2010’s?

This game won’t tell us everything about these two teams. But it’ll narrow our list of possibilities.

Penn State at West Virginia

I missed, at first, how crucial this game is for Penn State. I forgot how Neal Brown’s program rallied last year after spending most of his tenure in the wilderness, and with that, I missed how risky this trip to Morgantown is for the perpetual third fiddle in the old Big Ten East. Looking ahead at the season, I looked past West Virginia.

Will Penn State do the same?

The Nittany Lions should be good this year. They usually are. They were last year even with an offense that sometimes resembled a pot of spaghetti left boiling for an entire fortnight. The expectation in State College is that the defense will be nasty once again and that the offense will take steps towards more convincing, consistent competence. Drew Allar doesn’t need to win the Heisman. He needs to achieve serviceable results. Whether he does or doesn’t isn’t entirely on him, but he must play better than he did against Ohio State and especially Michigan last year.

If he does—if Penn State’s offense can merely handle its business—James Franklin should get out of this week and, really, the first five weeks without having to hear about the hot seat. It’s not that easy, but Penn State gets a soft opening to the season if they are, in fact, a team who can put up points against the West Virginias of the world.

Defensively, Penn State takes on a tricky, dangerous outfit in the form of the Mountaineer offense. Garrett Greene made a lot of plays with his legs last year, and West Virginia’s offensive line could wind up being one of the Big 12’s best. Assuming Penn State is conditioned and focused and disciplined, they should be able to contain Greene and slowly push WVU into more and more desperate situations. Manny Diaz is gone to Durham, though, and while Tom Allen’s a worthy replacement and there’s continuity around him, there’s no guarantee Penn State will in fact be conditioned and focused and disciplined. There’s also the possibility Greene and West Virginia will have more up their sleeves than we anticipate.

This is a game Penn State should be able to control. If they crack the door open, though, it’s going to get scary fast. It’s going to be high noon in Morgantown, and that won’t be Chick-Fil-A lemonade in all those stadium cups.

Miami at Florida

Every now and then, college football graces us with a game that will make one side entirely too confident and the other absolutely miserable. Notre Dame vs. Texas in 2016. Iowa State vs. Iowa in 2021. So, so, so many Clemson non-conference headliners in those years before they finally really got good.

Whoever wins this should be excited because they beat an in-state rival. Whoever wins this should not believe the win makes them a prime playoff candidate. Each has it in them, and Miami enjoys a favorable path, but if either is going to claim a place in the national consciousness come November, they’ll need to win a lot more games than only this one against 8–4, 7–5, 6–6, and 5–7 teams.

Florida is not a five-win team. They’re better than what that is understood to mean. They might, though, be a five-win team. In the literal sense. Movelor only projects them to win five games this year. ESPN’s SP+ is more sympathetic, but a playoff contender right now, Florida is not. Their schedule is a bastard, a cruel prank bestowed on them by a vengeful SEC god.

And (Urban Meyer) said unto Nathan, I have sinned against the Lord. And Nathan said unto (Urban Meyer), the Lord also hath put away thy sin; thou shalt not die. Howbeit, because by this deed thou hast given great occasion to the enemies of the Lord to blaspheme, the (dynastic football program) that is born unto thee shall surely die. And Nathan departed unto his house. And the Lord struck the (program) that (Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen, and Billy Napier inherited.)

Gainesville’s getting frustrated with Napier. It’s time for a step forward, and against an SEC schedule with UCF, Miami, and FSU in the non-con, a step forward might not look like a step forward to the naked eye. It will take two, or three, or four steps forward to truly demonstrate progress in the Swamp. I’m not saying Napier’s set to get fired, but the clock is starting to tick.

The clock is also ticking on Mario Cristobal. A man who struggles with literal clocks (he would have gone 8–4 last year had he understood that he had the Georgia Tech win in hand), metaphorical ones are now also nipping at his heels. Like Napier, Cristobal’s entering his third season at what’s become a second-tier Floridian football program. Like Napier, his results are not yet better than his predecessor’s.

At a high level, Miami and Florida are similar. They’re in the back half of the top 45 in Movelor. They’re in the back half of the top 25 in SP+. They’re supposed to be stronger this year on offense than on defense. They’ve got third-year head coaches for whom things aren’t going particularly well. Digging deeper, the differences emerge. Miami has that ACC schedule working in its favor. Miami also has a supposed Heisman contender in Cam Ward, the Washington State transfer carrying the hopes of the Hurricanes on his 6’2” shoulders.

Ward might be the real deal, but as we say too often, it takes more than a quarterback to win in big-time college football. Miami needs to surround its newcomer with effective performance. He’s stepping into an offense with a lot of continuity. Can that offense click right away? Florida has just as much continuity in its lineup, and the Gators are probably better-rounded than their rivals.

The similarities outweigh the differences. These are the same two football teams, at least from what we know. Neither is good enough to justify tomorrow’s winner feeling like a top-ten team. That won’t stop tomorrow’s winner from feeling like a top-ten team. As for the loser…the next news cycle won’t be very fun.

South Dakota State at Oklahoma State

The other big one? One of only four Movelor top-25 matchups this weekend.

We talked yesterday about what North Dakota State used to be. South Dakota State is in a similar era right now. They’re not what NDSU was at its peak, but the Jackrabbits are close. Oklahoma State will have its hands full tomorrow.

Like NDSU before it, SDSU grew into an FCS juggernaut by dominating the line of scrimmage. There are concerns here after the Jacks sent multiple linemen to the NFL, but an undervalued thing about these programs is how little they rely on individuals. They’re developmental programs, first and foremost. They don’t recruit their talent. They build it. Obviously, there is scouting and persuasion and strength and athleticism involved, but what makes these true FCS juggernauts so impressive is that they take lesser prospects than Power Four schools and turn them into better players, or at least better teams. We estimate South Dakota State to be better than seven separate SEC teams.

Will SDSU’s players be better than Oklahoma State’s tomorrow? At almost all positions, no. But Oklahoma State is a chaotic football program, and it’s unclear what exactly has been done to strengthen the defense in Stillwater. If I were Mike Gundy, I’d be more concerned about slowing down the visitors than scoring on them. Mark Gronowski knows what he’s doing under center. He is the rare FCS quarterback you shouldn’t expect to be rattled by this kind of environment.

Offensively, the Cowboys need a lot out of seventh-year senior Alan Bowman, who still hasn’t matched his freshman year touchdown total from Texas Tech back in 2018. Ollie Gordon can run the ball a lot, but running is the thing South Dakota State should be most ready for, even if Gordon’s a higher-quality back than what SDSU sees in the MVFC. South Dakota State might not be able to stop the run tomorrow, but they should be able to slow it down. That leaves Bowman needing to make plays that for the last six years he’s struggled to make.

It's going to be muggy in Stillwater, which could hurt the team with fewer resources in the way of nutrition and hydration and other peripheral aides like those. Oklahoma State should absolutely be the favorite. But South Dakota State’s going to make them earn this one. The nice thing for Oklahoma State is that their playoff path likely hinges on winning the Big 12 anyway, so a loss is not a death blow. The bad thing for the Big 12 is that there is a very real chance Oklahoma State both loses to an FCS team and wins the conference title this year. That wouldn’t be a great look.

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Those are the big ones. Here are Movelor’s predictions for all the Week 1 action. A few smaller games of interest…

Miami (OH) at Northwestern

You’ll get to see Northwestern’s temporary lakeside stadium and the reigning MAC champions. What more could you want?

Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt

Virginia Tech might be an ACC contender. A lot of people are very high on Kyron Drones. As is often the case, Vanderbilt is looking for respect.

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Others that will have big national title implications…

Fresno State at Michigan
Western Kentucky at Alabama
Idaho at Oregon
Colorado State at Texas
Akron at Ohio State

Aside from Georgia and Notre Dame, we’d still call these five home teams the national teams to watch. Michigan should have the hardest time, even with Jeff Tedford’s sad, health-related resignation in Fresno. Oregon faces an Idaho team that isn’t good but is one of the better teams in the FCS.

UT Martin at Kansas State

Kansas State isn’t exactly a national championship contender, at least not yet, but they’re a leading figure in the race for a first-round bye. They are the Clemson of the Big 12 as far as the playoff picture goes.

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Some games where the FCS team might upset the FBS team (not an exhaustive list—we remember Howard beating UNLV, but we cannot list every FBS vs. FCS game)…

Nicholls at Louisiana Tech
Central Arkansas at Arkansas State

Movelor has both lines here at single digits.

Southern Illinois at BYU
Richmond at Virginia
UC Davis at Cal
Tarleton at Baylor
Illinois State at Iowa

These five FBS schools are safer, but their power conference status makes them bigger trees if they do fall down. SIU’s probably among the best FCS teams. The other four are varying levels of competitive, but good enough to believably have a shot. There’s reason to fear each of the five Power Four schools could be vulnerable.

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Highlighting last night’s action, Colorado vs. North Dakota State was a lot of fun. It was a good, fun football game featuring one good program and a few great players.

Our NDSU readers should be encouraged by Cam Miller’s performance. He looked as poised as Andrew Peasley used to look under Tim Polasek last year at Wyoming. We haven’t always seen that composure from Miller in big games before.

Our NDSU readers should be a little frustrated with Polasek’s game management towards the end (like hydration and nutrition, FCS programs aren’t naturally as gifted when it comes to navigating timeouts and kicking decisions). But, it wasn’t egregious enough to lose them the game. What he did worked out. The loss happened independently of all of that, and nearly didn’t happen at all.

Colorado fans should probably be upset with whatever it was Deion Sanders had the offense doing down the stretch, which seemed to be trying to earn a two-score victory to…silence some of the haters? Paradoxically, the approach only strengthened the primary critique of Colorado, which is that it’s not a serious football program.

Travis Hunter is still unbelievable. It looked like he reached straight through the defender on that decisive touchdown catch. Shedeur Sanders was disappointing. His greatest strength is supposed to be decision-making, yet there he was getting his game saved by a pass interference call on an unnecessary deep ball ten yards underthrown. Colorado will need more out of him if it’s going to make a bowl game, and the Sanders family will need more out of him if they’re going to get the first-round draft pick on which their reputation more and more seems to hinge.

Elsewhere, NC State of course looked very bad, with Western Carolina projected to finish 6–5 and sitting outside Movelor’s FCS Top 25 even after the strong showing. I wouldn’t be too worried about the Wolfpack (if I were in a position to worry about the Wolfpack). WCU might be better than Movelor realizes. NC State might’ve just had a bad night. I wouldn’t be excited if I were an NCSU fan, but nothing is on fire, and it’s fair to guess that they were looking ahead to Tennessee and Clemson, whom they’ll play in one and three weeks respectively.

Utah pounded a Southern Utah team we think is roughly as good as WCU. Beating a team 49–0 is almost never an easy task, no matter who it is. The ACC and Big 12 are comparable, but given where Florida State and Clemson should be, the ACC race is a bit of a chore. Given where Kansas State and Utah should be, the Big 12 race is, to use a phrase, fun as hell.

Minnesota and North Carolina played one another.

I’m not sure what exactly happened to Jacksonville State, but Rich Rodriguez undid a lot of games’ worth of goodwill. Coastal Carolina’s ransacking of northeast Alabama marks yet another victory in the Sun Belt’s campaign to take over the top of mid-major college football.

Shoutout to Villanova, who beat a good Youngstown State team. The win leaves the Wildcats with a great path to a top-four seed in the FCS.

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Sacramento State’s trip over to San Jose was fun last night, but the real late-night football begins this evening, with TCU kicking off in Palo Alto at 7:30 Pacific Time. The game should reach halftime around midnight on the East Coast, and there might be a whole lot of points scored. If you’ve never watched a Troy Taylor offense, it might be worth staying up for this. Some humble writer described it as “amphetaminic” earlier today.

As for us? We need to get to College Station. We’ll write to you from there tomorrow morning. (And yes, that one will actually be a morning post.)

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This post was also published at www.thebarkingcrow.com, where you can always find the rest of Joe Stunardi and NIT Stu’s work.