College Football Morning: New Bubbles and New Coasts (Week 6 Preview)
There's a different collection of headliners this week.
It was impossible to watch Alabama play Georgia last weekend, or even Oklahoma State play Kansas State, without noticing the difference between college football this season and the college football we’ve known. If you read us often, you know we’re prone to annoyance with those who lament and lament some more the shifting conference landscape. Conference realignment has always happened, is always happening, and will always happen. It’s part of what gives the sport such stakes. Still, last weekend stood apart against this early season in how normal it felt. Alabama hosted Georgia. Kentucky knocked off Mississippi. Penn State dealt with Illinois. Even Notre Dame’s visit from Louisville featured schools familiar with one another.
This week, the situation is different. This week, the changes are the focus. The 12-team playoff. Transcontinental conferences. The diminished status of the ACC. If last week was like Major League Baseball teams wearing throwback uniforms, this week is the City Connects. It’s new. We’ll see how we like it.
The Big Games
Missouri at Texas A&M
We begin in the SEC, in a “Is this team for real?” bowl. The consequence of a bowl with that name is that there’s no way to claim we’ll know either team thoroughly by Monday. Two blank rulers don’t measure one another. We’ll know each better, though. We should know who’s better than whom.
This year was supposed to be Mizzou’s big breakthrough, Eliah Drinkwitz’s arrival upon the national scene. The Tigers were supposed to challenge for third place in the SEC. Luther Burden was supposed to contend for the Heisman. One month in…I mean, they’re ranked ninth in the AP Poll.
There’s a funny dichotomy here with Missouri. We want to talk about how underwhelming they’ve been, how much criticism they’ve received, how two straight games against the Power Four’s less powerful showed how far they have to go to compete with Mississippi, let alone Georgia, let alone Alabama and Texas. But Mizzou is 4–0, and that’s enough for a nice small number next to their name on your television. Boston College was ranked when the Tigers beat them and sits 4–1 today. Is it a house of cards? It sure felt that way when Vanderbilt had this team on the ropes. But maybe Mizzou is for real. Win in College Station, and it’ll be harder to dismiss them.
Texas A&M was one scheduling decision away from a 5–0 record and a College Gameday visit this Saturday filled with fawning coverage of Mike Elko’s hot start. Instead, they’re 4–1 with two SEC wins and a home loss to one of the ten best teams in the country. That’s not bad. Marcel Reed hasn’t been the king of offensive efficiency, but he’s played well and he’s taken care of the ball, two things original starting quarterback Connor Weigman didn’t do against Notre Dame.
In a normal year, mention of the playoff here would be a little forced. In the 12-team era, though, this is a bit of a bubble game. Texas A&M can climb onto the fringe of the bubble with a victory, especially if it’s convincing. Mizzou can get closer to a 50/50 shot. Overall, our model has Texas A&M at 6% playoff-likely with a win and nearly 0.0% playoff-likely with a loss. For Missouri, the numbers are 37% and 5%.
SMU at Louisville
Another playoff bubble matchup which in the past would have merely been a curiosity. Adding to the strangeness, SMU’s in the ACC now, having paid their way in, because that is now something that is occasionally possible.
If the ACC champion isn’t Clemson or Miami, it’s likeliest to be one of these two. In fact, Movelor, our model’s rating system, still has Louisville a little bit better than Miami, the Cards coming off an impressive loss while the Canes celebrate a concerning win. Enough about Miami, though. SMU:
SMU entered the year a popular ACC sleeper. The thought was that Clemson and Florida State might each take a step back, and that even if they didn’t, scheduling complications in this 17-team league could help the Mustangs sneak onto the big stage. Then, SMU came out flat against Nevada and lost to BYU. More captivating objects seized our attention.
Over the last two weeks, SMU’s taken strides, averaging 54 points across home games versus TCU and Florida State. Their athleticism is showing up. They’re playing with more cohesion. Things are clicking on the offensive side of the football. It’s a tough turnaround for Louisville, who did impress last week but took a major shot to its at-large hopes. The Cards are the better team, and they’re playing at home, but they have their work cut out for them.
Conditional probabilities? SMU’s 32% playoff-likely with a victory, bolstered by BYU’s recent surge. With a loss, the Mustangs drop to 6%, independent of other results. For Louisville, it’s 38% if they win and 8% if they lose. This is more about the ACC title than it’s about impressing anyone.
Clemson at Florida State
Speaking of the ACC title: Imagine explaining the new playoff format to someone in 2018 and then telling them the ACC champion might need an automatic bid?
This is a more familiar matchup, even if FSU wasn’t an ACC school until the 90’s. We’re used to Clemson and Florida State standing atop this conference. Of course, that’s not what’s happening, only Clemson’s standing atop this conference, but hey—if you follow those instructions and throw out the record books…
Tallahassee is dangerous terrain for the Tigers. Former Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is reportedly out with a broken finger for the Seminoles, but while we didn’t see a whole lot from Brock Glenn in last year’s limited role, the FSU offense might benefit from a shakeup. Meanwhile, Florida State’s defense hasn’t been that bad. Cade Klubnik walked all over App State, NC State, and Stanford. Florida State’s a better unit than those three.
As it stands, Clemson does still have an at-large playoff shot, albeit a narrow one. The more important thing here, though, is pride. For both sides. Neither is what they’d like to be right now. Only one can get there, but both can make a statement.
Relevant probabilities: Clemson’s 59% playoff-likely with a win and only 20% playoff-likely with a loss. Please note that we don’t have conference tiebreakers programmed in until later in the year. That doesn’t make a huge impact, but it’s not something we want to gloss over entirely.
Michigan at Washington
A national championship rematch! Woof. Both schools were expected to take a step back, but optics have been poor for both. Michigan sandwiched a big win over USC with performances which made Arkansas State and Minnesota look like respectable Big Ten competition. Washington lost the Apple Cup and then bungled an opportunity at a conference win in New Jersey, losing to Rutgers on a missed field goal which would have been the career long (by a lot) for the kicker, the kicker who was one-for-three already on the night. Game management might not be Jedd Fisch’s strong suit.
We’re still suspicious that both these teams might be good. Michigan only opened the door back up to Minnesota in the fourth quarter, and Washington put up large offensive numbers against Rutgers only to see a weird number of drives stall. This might be a bigger game in hindsight than it feels like it is at the time. It’s not that either of these teams will win the Big Ten, and we certainly aren’t saying you should watch Washington as a playoff contender. But for as much as teams turn over these days, and for as extremely 2023 as last year’s teams were (each was heavily fueled by players whom Covid had granted an extra year of eligibility), there are still some decent bones in Ann Arbor and Seattle. Don’t close the door on Michigan making its presence felt around the bubble. Don’t overlook Washington as a spoiler.
Numbers: Michigan drops to 4% playoff-likely with a loss but can get to 33% playoff-likely with a win. I’m not that worried about our model being too high on Michigan any more, either.
Miami at Cal
Going back to the ACC…yep. This is not a Big East/Pac-12 matchup. (“Conference realignment has always happened, is always happening, and will always happen.”)
Cal didn’t get its moment in Tallahassee like it did at Auburn, but the Bears have still proven themselves competitive in this new ACC world. Movelor has them as the fifth-best team in the league, and with only one conference loss, it’s not outlandish to think they could compete for the title. Catching a contender at home is generally a good way to make that happen, and it helps if the contender has glaring weaknesses like Miami does.
The question with Miami—and this has been the question the whole time—is whether they’re still Miami. Are they still the Miami who failed to kneel the clock out last year against Georgia Tech? Are they still the Miami who lost by two touchdowns two years ago to Middle Tennessee? Are they still the Miami who’s on its fifth full-time coach since Larry Coker? A lot of the reactions to Miami surviving Virginia Tech said, “Wow, Miami didn’t blow it when they almost blew it. They must be back to greatness!” I think that neglects how close they were to blowing it.
Cam Ward is getting a lot of Heisman buzz, and deservedly so. But he flashed some of the deficiencies last week which hurt him so badly at times with Washington State. He can get reckless with the ball, and there are times when that’s necessary, but it is not necessary every time.
Miami should win this game, because they’re the better team by a big enough margin to not worry about home-field advantage. Cam Ward should play well, because Cam Ward’s a good quarterback who tends to play well. Nothing all that weird should happen at the end, because generally, weird things don’t happen. (Infrequence is often what designates the weird as weird.) But Justin Wilcox is a defensive guy, and Cal’s going to get up for this game, and that’s a long flight over from Coral Gables to Berkeley. It’s a good matchup.
Probabilities: Miami gets to 61% playoff-likely with a win and only drops to 21% playoff-likely with a loss. (“Only” because that’s a territory where their fate is still in their own hands.) Cal can get to 9% with the upset.
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The Playoff-Impacting Games
The others involving at least one team with better than a 1-in-10 playoff probability:
Iowa at Ohio State
Michigan State at Oregon
UCLA at Penn State
USC at Minnesota
Ohio State’s in the national championship conversation. Oregon’s in the Big Ten title conversation. Penn State’s favored to make the playoff field. USC’s trying to keep that dream alive. There are very clear steps between these four teams. For those wondering, USC gets to 18% playoff-likely with a triumph on the road.
Alabama at Vanderbilt
Auburn at Georgia
Tennessee at Arkansas
Mississippi at South Carolina
In the SEC, Alabama now gets top billing over Georgia. They’re the favorite now, even over Texas (who is idle).
The Dawgs and the Tide get what should be tune-up games. Auburn’s got potential, and they’ve played better than their final scores, but there’s a consistency to the letdowns which makes us suspicious that they are uniquely bad at closing out games for real reasons which don’t go away.
Tennessee and Mississippi have more interesting tests. From what I’ve seen, it’s sounding like LaNorris Sellers will be back for South Carolina, which makes things even riskier for Lane Kiffin in Columbia (40% playoff probability with a win, 9% with a loss). Tennessee has to deal with a bit of chaos on wheels in Arkansas, finding themselves heavy favorites but not heavy enough to not take the competition seriously.
Baylor at Iowa State
Texas Tech at Arizona
Over in the Big 12, K-State, Utah, and BYU are all off this week. That leaves Iowa State and Arizona playing as primary playoff contenders. Neither should be particularly comfortable. Iowa State’s offense has a hard time getting into gear, and Baylor’s yet to quit despite suffering through some very painful football. Arizona can’t be sure exactly what they are. Their upset win at Utah took more than Cam Rising being gone, but why did they look so overmatched against K-State, and so vulnerable against New Mexico and Northern Arizona?
Probabilities here: Iowa State gets to 26% with a win and drops to 5% with a loss. Arizona’s numbers are identical when rounded to that many digits.
Syracuse at UNLV
Utah State at Boise State
James Madison at Louisiana Monroe
An interesting trio in the Group of Five. UNLV gets a shot at a Power Four school, Kyle McCord trying to avenge Las Vegan treatment of Irish-looking quarterbacks from the northeast. The Rebels are a solid favorite, especially in Movelor’s eyes, but we were very excited about Syracuse two weeks ago and perhaps we shouldn’t ignore them just yet. Win, and UNLV stays undefeated, rising to a 23% playoff probability. Lose, and there’s technically still a chance, but it’s going to be a lot harder to hold off the AAC or Sun Belt champ, and it’s less likely they’re really good enough to win the MWC. This game’s on Friday night, as is Michigan State/Oregon, as are a few others.
Boise State’s in a take–care–of–business game against Utah State, and while that could become a trap, I suspect the Broncos are going to be looking to pad Ashton Jeanty’s stats and satisfy a home crowd. James Madison might be in the same situation heading to Monroe. It’s hard to know what ULM is this year. They’re 3–1, whooped UAB, and at least grabbed a couple picks against Arch Manning and Texas. James Madison needs undefeated worse than UNLV does. The Sun Belt won’t give them as high-profile of games.
The Interesting Games
Army at Tulsa
Navy at Air Force
The undefeated service academies! And the defeated service academy! That second one is Air Force. They’ve lost three times.
Army and Navy are two of the best stories of the young year, and each has a good chance to keep the thing going. Playoffs? Possible! Neither is expected to get to even a 1-in-20 chance coming out of this week, but it’s possible. As always, their football is fun.
Indiana at Northwestern
Rutgers at Nebraska
The undefeated Big Ten underdogs! And Northwestern and Nebraska! Those latter two have lost a combined three times. You can guess who contributed more of them.
Statistically, there’s little Indiana hasn’t shown so far. They’ve looked the part of a competitive Big Ten team to a degree Illinois has not (honestly, Michigan too). Their offense puts up great big numbers, and when Curt Cignetti said he was going to build a winner in Bloomington, his track record at JMU offered more reasons for belief than those of a lot of predecessors.
Movelor is probably too slow in catching up to Indiana. Its strength comes from not overreacting, but you can imagine what risk that creates. Still, we got all consternated two years ago about Movelor underrating USC, and Movelor wasn’t underrating USC. We paced around the room looking at Colorado last season, and Movelor wasn’t underrating Colorado. Movelor catches up rather quickly. It’s hard to get that much better that fast.
This isn’t to say that Indiana’s going to lose to Northwestern. It’s to say that even with that friendly schedule ahead, our model needs to see more, and there’s reason to believe it’s not wrong in its reluctance to join the crowd singing Hosanna and laying palms at Lil Sebastian’s feet.
Rutgers hasn’t played as well as Indiana, but Greg Schiano’s had more time to (re)build his thing in Piscataway than Cignetti’s had in the heartland. Washington bailed out Rutgers last week, but Rutgers might be better than Nebraska. This one should be good, and if Rutgers wins, it will be time to have a conversation.
Pitt at North Carolina
Duke at Georgia Tech
Duke’s undefeated, a full 5–0, and Pitt’s unbeaten as well at 4–0. Each is an underdog this weekend in at least one of Movelor and betting markets, but wins are very believable, and in Pitt’s case might be likely. (That game’s close to a tossup.) We saw against West Virginia how good Pitt’s offense can look in big moments. Duke’s defense isn’t getting credit for its nastiness. This is a Manny Diaz unit, after all.
Duke’s closer to believable playoff contention than Pitt is. Duke doesn’t have to play Clemson in the regular season. We’re keeping more of an eye on Duke than Pitt. But each is a good time.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State
Going back to the Big 12 for a minute, West Virginia and Oklahoma State are both down. Oklahoma State opened conference play 0–2. West Virginia got swatted by Penn State and blew a big one against Pitt. We don’t have a good sense of what’s going to happen here, but given how each team’s games have tended to go, we expect it to be wild. It shouldn’t be bad football, either.
UCF at Florida
Last, a pure curiosity. Billy Napier’s flown under the national radar the last few weeks thanks to Florida beating Mississippi State and then taking the weekend off. His seat remains scorching, though, and UCF is sometimes a solid team. This is one of the more winnable games remaining on the Gators’ schedule. Can Napier and his guys take advantage?
The Big FCS Games
We’re going with two categories this week:
Weber State at Montana
North Dakota at North Dakota State
We don’t think Montana or NDSU is at the level of South Dakota State, but it’s possible, and even if they aren’t, they’re in the next tier down. Each of these games is a national title hopeful taking on a good conference foe. For NDSU, there’s the added wrinkle of a rivalry game and the memory of last year’s unexpected thrashing in Grand Forks.
New Hampshire at Harvard
Chattanooga at East Tennessee State
Central Arkansas at Abilene Christian
Northern Arizona at Idaho
Illinois State at Southern Illinois
Going through the others:
With Cornell kicking Yale’s ass, Harvard might be the best team in the Ivy League, while New Hampshire’s hoping to challenge in the CAA, which isn’t as good as FCS people think it is but isn’t actively bad. That’s on Friday night in Cambridge.
In the SoCon, Chattanooga sits around the edge of Movelor’s FCS Top 25, and ETSU’s shown promise at times. The Mocs already lost to Mercer. They can’t drop another one if they want a realistic shot at the conference title.
Atop the UAC, we get a good one between Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian, both FCS Top 25 teams in Movelor’s eyes. They’re probably the two best teams in that league.
Northern Arizona and Idaho each have some wounds to lick, but it’s still been a strong start to the year for both. Who can resist the Kibbie Dome?
Southern Illinois’s got a surprising losing record and has been pushed around a bit the last two weeks. Are they a playoff contender? A potential top ten team? With three losses already, they either have to win this one or upset one of NDSU and SDSU to have any sort of playoff chance.
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More resources for the weekend ahead:
Our model’s latest College Football Playoff Bracketology
Movelor’s rankings and our model’s latest playoff probabilities
Bark.
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This post was also published at www.thebarkingcrow.com, where you can always find all of Joe Stunardi, Stuart McGrath, and NIT Stu’s work.
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