College Football Morning: Lincoln Riley Looks to Break Back Through (Week 4 Preview)

USC/Michigan, Tennessee/Oklahoma, Utah/Oklahoma State, and 38 more games of note.

It’s helpful to remember that three of Lincoln Riley’s last five starting quarterbacks won the Heisman Trophy. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams won it. Jalen Hurts and Spencer Rattler did not. Measuring by season rather than by quarterback, Riley’s program has captured three of the last seven Heismans. However you slice it, Lincoln Riley’s QB has won the Heisman somewhere between 43% and 60% of the time since he first became a head coach.

You can call Lincoln Riley’s offense an exercise in stat-padding, and there’s an angle where that might be fair. But it’s not like Mayfield, Murray, Hurts, and Williams have flamed out in the NFL. Most likely, all four will be ranked among the top 20 NFL quarterbacks next summer by those who construct such rankings. Does Riley recruit good quarterbacks? Yes. Good quarterbacks seek him out to coach them, to the extent that he often has his pick of the litter. But it’s hard to deny his developmental talent. The man recruits good quarterbacks. He develops great ones.

This aspect of Riley’s identity faded from college football’s field of vision over the last year. His defensive shortcomings became the focus. This was fair, and it remains fair. A reasonable conception of Lincoln Riley is that half the time, his quarterback will win the Heisman, but even then his defense won’t be good enough for him to produce a national championship-caliber team. This is a suspect assessment. Theoretically, Riley should eventually find a defensive coordinator who can carry his train. D’Anton Lynn is only the second person he’s ever hired to the role. But for the last seven years, that description above is what Lincoln Riley has been. We are what we repeatedly do, and whatnot.

Does the Heisman track record apply to Miller Moss? Does Miller Moss have a 50/50 chance of winning the Heisman Trophy? That number sounds obnoxiously high. But considering Moss can come back next season if he doesn’t like his NFL Draft stock, and considering more teams will be playoff-relevant this year than ever before, I’m not sure 50/50’s outrageous. It’s almost certainly too high. It has to be too high. Yet betting even odds against it feels risky heading into Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon, USC has a chance to break through.

You might be asking whether USC already broke through. Didn’t USC break through on Labor Day Sunday, beating LSU? I’d offer that there are three walls here to break, or three sets of scar tissue, if you’d prefer that metaphor.

At Oklahoma, Riley’s teams were consistently among the ten best in the country. Four out of five years, Riley produced top ten teams. They finished the fifth with a top ten ranking as well, though they probably weren’t actually quite that good.

At USC, Riley’s teams have not been top-ten quality yet. His first USC squad rolled to the conference championship game against an uncharacteristically weak Pac-12. Once there, they got bodied by Utah. His second USC team was bludgeoned to death on an October night in Indiana, Notre Dame picking Williams off thrice and sacking him six times en route to a blowout win which sent the Trojans spinning. The ruse was up, and against an uncharacteristically strong Pac-12, USC finished 5–4 in conference play, even losing to a UCLA team so bad it enticed Chip Kelly to flee in the offseason and seek asylum under Ryan Day.

The first wall USC needed to break through was showing that they are no longer bad. Last year’s USC team was bad. Beating LSU proved that this low threshold would at least be met. However Saturday goes in Ann Arbor, USC is no longer bad. This is a relief for those who pay Riley’s salary.

The second wall USC needs to break through—the one they’re looking to break through on Saturday—is the one separating top 25 from top ten. Riley’s first USC team was one of the country’s 25 best. Riley’s Oklahoma teams were usually among the country’s ten best. Beat Michigan on the road and look good doing it? USC’s likely favored in every game the rest of the regular season. Oklahoma Riley is back, and Miller Moss joins Cam Ward as a Heisman favorite.

The next step, of course, would be breaking through that third wall, the one Riley’s never broken through, the one separating programs like Riley’s and Brian Kelly’s and maybe still Steve Sarkisian’s from Nick Saban’s and Kirby Smart’s. But that wall is a long way away. We’re looking at the second wall this weekend, watching to see if Riley’s Trojans can knock it down.

There’s a customary college football paradox at play here, and that’s that if USC does beat Michigan, Michigan might not be a top-25 team. This will be true at least in the eyes of the public, and possibly in reality as well. Alex Orji is not some new figure in Ann Arbor. Sherrone Moore knows what he has in his new starting quarterback. That Moore rolled the dice for three weeks with Davis Warren is a very bad indicator of what Orji and this Michigan offense can do. Moore has to try Orji—Warren struggled to the extent that Moore would have been justified putting Mason Graham under center—but expectations for the new starter are low.

Michigan’s defense is receiving questions too. Nobody seriously thinks they’re bad, but this unit has probably taken a step back, and after years of Harbaughian us–against–the–world mentalities building up to January’s triumph, it’s hard to see how motivation could possibly be what it was across the three years preceding that game. A letdown season with a retooling roster and a new defensive coordinator isn’t a fun recipe when two of your first four opponents are Steve Sarkisian and Lincoln Riley.

This is why we added that caveat above. “Beat Michigan on the road and look good doing it.” Michigan might make USC look good, and even looking good might not be enough to legitimately call the Trojans a top-ten team. The likeliest scenario is that this is a good and close and well-fought game, but there’s a plausible outcome here where Michigan punts 13 times, USC wins by 30, and we’re left wondering whether all the three-and-outs were Lynn’s defense or Moore’s quarterback-less offense.

Having said all this and piled every expectation on USC’s side of the scale, we should now acknowledge: This would be a very nice win for Michigan. Win, and Michigan’s 1–0 in Big Ten play, having beaten one of the league’s five best teams. Win, and Michigan’s a playoff favorite again, with no shame in their solitary loss and plenty of opportunities awaiting ahead. Win, and Michigan’s back in this. Michigan won’t be “back”—it’s hard to think of a more perfect storm for the Wolverines than getting an extra year of eligibility from Covid to develop their lifeblood, their offensive line—but Michigan will be back in the playoff race.

Those, then, are the stakes in Ann Arbor. For USC, it’s about proving that this program really is something, that the rebuild was successful and Lincoln Riley quarterbacks are still a knife in every defense’s side. For Michigan, it’s about proving that this program hasn’t gone away just yet.

Our model has this game’s winner making the playoff only 43% of the time. Like ESPN’s SP+ and very unlike betting markets, it has USC ranked 17th and Michigan a neutral-field favorite. What does that mean? Nobody’s entirely sure what Michigan and USC are, and each will have work to do even if they do win on Saturday. These probabilities are less certain than those concerning Tennessee and Oklahoma. But, the agreement with SP+ makes us suspect our model’s probably fairly accurate, and that we should trust what it says.

What else does it say? With a win, USC’s up to 29% playoff-likely, still probably favored by betting markets in each of the next eight but a very narrow favorite in three of those. With a loss, USC drops to 7% playoff-likely and starts worrying heavily about Penn State’s visit in three weeks.

For Michigan, the numbers are 46% with a win and 11% with a loss. They get Oregon at home, but they have to go to Columbus, and trips to Seattle and Champaign won’t be walkovers. Opportunity and risk go hand-in-hand.

The takeaway here is that there are going to be gaps between perception and reality coming out of Saturday’s toughest tilt. The winner will have a lot of wind in their sails, but we still won’t be certain about the quality of their boat, and you can paint the seas as kind (favored in seven or eight more games!) or choppy (only 5.5 more expected wins) depending the angle from which you look. Perception does count, but it can only go so far, and with the larger Big Ten and SEC fostering more direct competition between national powers, it’s harder than it used to be for good–not–great teams to sneak through.

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The Other Big Games

More likely to sneak through?

Utah at Oklahoma State

Utah and Oklahoma State are not among the country’s four best teams. Neither are Kansas State, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, and UCF. Through the magic of the College Football Playoff format, though, these teams are all likelier than Tennessee or Mississippi to receive a first-round bye. That’s not a knock on the format. The point of a playoff is not to put the four best teams in the four most advantageous positions. If we cared about the best and/or most deserving team winning the national championship, we would not have a twelve-team playoff. We would have a four-team playoff. We want entertainment, though, and this setup makes for compelling quarterfinals. The Big 12 and ACC champions will benefit from rest, but they’ll most likely play as underdogs against the 5-seed and 6-seed, teams who could very well turn out to be Georgia and Texas.

In the present moment, this is a big game for Big 12 supremacy. Utah’s not entirely at full strength—even if Cam Rising plays, as is expected, he’s at least a little banged up—but the Utes are likely better than Oklahoma State if entirely healthy. Our best guess right now, looking at all factors, is that Utah and Kansas State are the two best teams in the Big 12. It’s very possible both go down for the first time this weekend.

Partly thanks to that and partly thanks to being rather good themselves, Oklahoma State has emerged as another Big 12 favorite. They exposed South Dakota State in Week 1 and capitalized on Arkansas self-detonating in Week 2. They tuned up last weekend against Tulsa, and now they get their big opportunity, a chance to grab that 3-seed in bracketologies come Sunday morning. This is a straightforward path for a team to take to prominence, and Mike Gundy’s program is usually not straightforward, and if we subscribe to more cosmic views of college football, Oklahoma State will probably lose this Saturday in goofy, turnover festival fashion only to then upset Kansas State next weekend and turn the Big 12 into a whirlpool. Returning ourselves to earthly indicators, Oklahoma State’s either a narrow favorite or a narrow underdog in this game depending what you think of Rising’s finger and the Pokes’ performance so far.

The winner makes the playoff 39% of the time. For Oklahoma State, the numbers are 38% with a win and 8% with a loss. For Utah, it’s 40% in victory and 11% in defeat.

Kansas State at BYU

Sticking in the Big 12 for one moment more, K-State’s got a tough one in Provo. LaVell Edwards Stadium is 4,649 feet above sea level. Kansas State has never played a game at elevation in Chris Klieman’s time in Manhattan. The last time Klieman coached a game at any sort of noteworthily elevated stadium was nine years ago, when North Dakota State was downed by Montana in a season opener. Does this mean anything at all? I don’t know. But Washington–Grizzly Stadium is 1,459 feet lower than Provo.

In addition to obtaining oxygen, K-State has to deal with a feisty BYU. SP+ and FPI are low on these guys, but Movelor, our model’s rating system, sees a 3–0 team who beat somewhat respected SMU on the road and calls this a risky one for the visitors. Betting markets take it even further than Movelor. Bettors have the Cougars only a 6.5-point underdog. Movelor puts the spread at 8.0.

Betting markets have taken the view that BYU’s a low-scoring team who produces low-scoring games. I’m personally a little skeptical of this assessment. The SMU game featured six turnovers and six field goals, both factors which artificially deflate a final score. Wyoming, whom the Cougars beat in Week 3, might have one of the two or three worst offenses in the FBS. This shouldn’t be expected to turn into a track meet, but both teams should end the night in the 20’s unless something gets wacky or K-State’s defense is titanic.

For Kansas State, this isn’t quite necessary. This is one of K-State’s toughest remaining games, and even in the perception battle, they have a chance to bounce back next week with Oklahoma State headed to Manhattan. Our model has the Wildcats making the playoff 21% of the time even if they lose. With a win, though, that number climbs to 57%, and you can guess what happens if K-State then beats the Pokes next week and ascends to 5–0. If Kansas State handles business Saturday night, there’s a 50/50 shot they’re the clear, lone Big 12 favorite when the final whistle sounds.

Tennessee at Oklahoma

Going back to Norman.

Want to know how Lincoln Riley came to coach the Sooners, if you don’t already? After 2014, Bob Stoops fired his longtime play-calling quarterback coach and needed to hire a new one. Who did he fire before he hired Riley? Josh Heupel.

Heupel took a long road back to the top, first spending a year in Logan, Utah coordinating and quarterback coaching for the Aggies before landing the same job at Mizzou. From there, he jumped to the UCF head coaching gig, succeeding Scott Frost and going 12–1 in his debut campaign. When Tennessee fired Jeremy Pruitt as the program hemorrhaged both wins and (allegedly) money in McDonald’s bags, Heupel got the Knoxville nod. Since arriving, he’s merely brought Tennessee its first 20-win two-year stretch since 2003 and 2004.

We don’t know how good this Volunteers team is. The offense is potent. Nico Iamaleava has a massive bandwagon attached to him every time he scrambles. The defense, so far, looks pretty good. Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t thrived, so as with USC going to play Michigan, it’s possible this won’t look as big in hindsight as it looks right now. Right now, though, it looks like a chance for Tennessee to show it can do more than just beat the crap out of NC State.

Oklahoma, of course, should come to play. The jury’s still out on Brent Venables as a head coach, but looking at the Sooners’ talent and looking back at what Venables accomplished as defensive coordinator at Clemson, one would think that side of the ball will have a better chance of slowing down the Vols than a healthy majority of the SEC. Thanks to College Gameday’s presence in Norman, this game has taken on an a grandeur beyond its actual stakes. This is supposed to be Tennessee’s coming out party. People are ready for the Volunteers to ascend. That’s a good set of expectations for the Sooners to manage.

Movelor’s close to the betting markets on this one, as are SP+ and FPI. Everyone seems to agree that Tennessee’s a top-ten team and that Oklahoma’s somewhere comfortably in the top twenty. With Texas, Georgia, and Alabama all likely ahead of both within the SEC, though, and with Mississippi and Mizzou occupying plenty of top-ten lists themselves, the playoff stakes here are huge. It’s a crowding-out game, a chance to push another at-large contender a good ways down the hill. The winner makes the field 56% of the time. The loser makes it 14% of the time. For Tennessee, those numbers are 73% and 31%. For Oklahoma, they’re 26% and 5%. Oklahoma has to play all of Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Mizzou, and LSU, and it plays three of those teams on the road. Oklahoma could be one of the country’s 25 best teams and still miss a bowl.

Playoff-Impacting Games

There are fifteen more games involving teams at least 10% likely to make the College Football Playoff, per our model’s simulations. (We’re always going by our model when it comes to playoff probabilities.)

We’ll start with the less interesting characters:

Marshall at Ohio State
Kent State at Penn State
Miami (OH) at Notre Dame
Vanderbilt at Missouri
Georgia Southern at Mississippi
Louisiana Monroe at Texas
Portland State at Boise State

Seven “take care of business” games here. There is only a 3% chance even one of these seven teams loses. Margin matters, and we’re curious about a few units facing injuries (ND’s offensive line, Texas’s quarterback room), but the goal for six of these seven teams is to play their second string for the whole second half, and Mizzou is a heavy favorite against Vanderbilt as well.

Mizzou’s the most interesting here, because Vandy’s the most interesting guest. Diego Pavia’s been a lot of fun under center so far, but Vanderbilt did just lose to Georgia State, and Missouri’s probably feeling they should have beaten Boston College by more points. It’s a statement opportunity for the Tigers.

Miami at USF

One more useful measuring stick? Miami’s trip upstate to Tampa. I don’t know that South Florida will have a huge home-field advantage at Raymond James Stadium, but the Bulls are a respectable team. Their performance against Alabama was aided by Crimson Tide miscues, but USF had that game within five points with less than half a quarter to go. Had USF not scheduled that home-and-home, we’d be listing them right now as a playoff contender themselves. Even as it stands, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if they won the AAC and made the field.

For Miami, this shouldn’t be as big a test as Florida was, but Florida really does not look good, and Miami’s one of those programs where people are so ready for the Hurricanes to be “back” that it’s easy to inflate expectations. While SP+ and FPI think the Canes are for real, Movelor employs a more cautious tack, so maybe we’re overweighting the risk here because of our model’s deliberate approach. Still, we’re curious how the Hurricanes will play defensively. We trust Cam Ward to put up big numbers and make some thrilling plays, but we’re less sure about that defense. That cosmic view we mentioned earlier would point towards an upset threat here. Leaving it close would be the recent Miami thing to do.

With a win, the Canes are up to 38% playoff-likely, and again that’s with a model that’s lower than the consensus on this team. With a loss, Miami still has a chance—a 13% chance—but concerns of a Florida/FSU-esque spiral will materialize. For USF? Pull this off, and they’ll not only have a claim to a state championship but will enjoy an 8% chance to get into the playoff themselves.

NC State at Clemson
Georgia Tech at Louisville

In the ACC, Clemson’s still on its rehabilitation tour, hosting an NC State team who’s looked worse than its expectations every time it’s played. Unless Miami just decimates USF, I’d assume Clemson’s still our ACC favorite with a win here, and the numbers bear that out. With a Tigers victory, they’re 42% playoff-likely. Lose, and Clemson drops to 11% while the Wolfpack reenter the edge of the picture at 9% themselves.

Up in Louisville, it only gets bigger from here. The Cardinals had last weekend off, but they’re 2–0 so far, having had no trouble with Austin Peay or Jacksonville State. Louisville fans are excited about Jeff Brohm, but Georgia Tech doesn’t have a bad thing going under Brent Key. Is there a benefit to Georgia Tech having played twice as many games so far as its host? Is there a downside there in the form of wear and tear? Our model doesn’t account for such things, but it has Louisville looking at a 27% playoff probability with a win. Georgia Tech gets up to 9% if they pull off the upset.

James Madison at North Carolina
Memphis at Navy
East Carolina at Liberty
Toledo at Western Kentucky

In the Group of Five landscape, four contenders are in action.

James Madison’s got the most intriguing game, the Dukes trying to prove that they’re more like historic JMU than the team who struggled against Gardner-Webb two weeks ago. UNC might not be all that much, but they’re 3–0 and face a pretty nice path from here, with a trip to Chestnut Hill possibly their toughest ACC game. Quietly, this is a big one. The winner makes the playoff one in seven times. That number’s bigger if the winner is JMU (23%, as JMU would not only be unbeaten but also good enough to win in Chapel Hill), but UNC does have a comparable shot to NC State and Georgia Tech, even with one fewer loss. For what it's worth, JMU isn’t fully eliminated with a defeat. It’d be a big, big setback, though. They’d go from almost 1-in-4 to roughly 1-in-25.

Memphis, last week’s Group of Five hero, is looking to avoid disaster in Annapolis. The win in Tallahassee was massive, Navy’s a notorious trap game, and Memphis is traditionally not an athletic department whose teams are described as cool, calm, or collected. 40% playoff probability with a win, still best in the mid-major world. 10% with an upset loss. That number isn’t zero, but a loss would of course really hurt.

Liberty faces one of its tougher games of the year in Lynchburg, a home matchup with an AAC team expected to go 7–5. (“Tougher” is a relative word.) The Flames’ path doesn’t completely clear out from here—they go to Boone next weekend to play App State—but it’s pretty beneficial to a team hoping to go 13–0. Still, the weak schedule isn’t looking as helpful right now as it turned out last year. Our model only has these guys 18% likely to make the playoff even if they beat ECU. That’s pretty good, but the team is going to need some help down the line.

Finally, a trap game for Toledo, who’s riding high after last week’s win in Starkville but has its work cut out for it against Western Kentucky. WKU’s probably the biggest threat to Liberty in Conference USA. That isn’t saying much, but the point is that these guys might be capable. Toledo’s 19% playoff-likely with a victory.

San Jose State @ Washington State

One more here? Washington State and SJSU hold down the late-night slot on Friday over on the CW. We’ve hit the drum on WSU’s playoff chances harder than most, but with AP voters evidently not paying for Peacock, the Cougars are frustratingly far from the zeitgeist. Either way, they need this one. They get to a 32% playoff shot with a win. Their visitors? Ken Niumatalolo’s new team is a real Mountain West contender, one who makes the playoff in 13% of simulations where they pull off the upset in Pullman.

Games of Interest

Illinois at Nebraska

Two ranked Big Ten foes in primetime on Friday night? Not too shabby. Both these teams have a ton left to prove—the winner only makes the playoff 3% of the time—but excitement is a valuable commodity, and the winner will have it in droves. Especially Nebraska. They get to play Purdue next week.

Cal at Florida State

A fascinating one between 3–0 and 0–3, Cal’s visit to Florida State could have some playoff impact. At 4–0, playing in the ACC, with two road victories under their belt? That’s a contender, and our model agrees, pegging the Golden Bears as 19% playoff-likely if they get out of Tallahassee unbeaten. For Florida State, this is more a question of who these coaches and players are as people. They haven’t always folded in the face of adversity these last twelve months—the defense showed up against Florida and Louisville last fall—but more often than not, when things have gotten bad, FSU’s walked away. Things are bad right now. How will they respond to the latest frustration?

(We wrote more about Cal yesterday.)

Florida at Mississippi State

Speaking of adversity and schools in the state of Florida, the Gators are scuffling, and scuffling might be putting it mildly. We wrote on Monday about Billy Napier’s job security amidst broader transition at the university, but the short version is that while this probably won’t be Napier’s last game in Gainesville, it might formalize his lame duck status.

Buffalo at Northern Illinois

NIU plays its MAC opener, hosting Buffalo, and the Huskies need to show up after two weeks of receiving a whole lot of attention and praise. Our model still isn’t taking them seriously as a playoff contender, but there’s no reason they can’t change that. Win handily over their guests, who shouldn’t be a major MAC factor, and NIU takes a step forward.

South Alabama at Appalachian State
Stanford at Syracuse

In Thursday and Friday’s undercards, we’ve got App State trying to get fully back on the rails after their dismantling by Clemson, South Alabama looking to get to 2–2 after beating Northwestern State by eleven touchdowns, and Syracuse trying to reach 3–0 and start making a little ACC noise. With Boston College and Virginia—the other 1–0 ACC teams—playing nonconference games this weekend, Cuse could come out of Week 4 alone in first place.

Arizona State at Texas Tech
Arkansas at Auburn
TCU at SMU
Michigan State at Boston College

Speaking of BC, they’ve got an encouraged Michigan State program coming to town. Sitting at 3–0, MSU upset Maryland on the road two weeks ago, and they’re looking for another East Coast feather to put in their cap. There are questions about Sparty’s long-term picture, but Jonathan Smith can coach football.

Arizona State’s 3–0 after that win in San Marcos last Thursday, but now they have to win in Texas again, visiting an inconsistent and high-octane Texas Tech. ASU would have to do a whole lot to be even a Big 12 sleeper, but they’ll have their chances.

Arkansas, Auburn, TCU, and SMU each enter their respective games with a lot of desperation. For the SEC pair, this win is probably necessary for reaching a bowl. For the Dallas–Ft. Worth duo, TCU’s trying to wash away a meltdown in their Big 12 opener while SMU’s trying to steady the ship following a disappointing start to their power conference career.

Tulane at Louisiana
Virginia at Coastal Carolina

We think the Sun Belt is pretty good, but we don’t know if any individual Sun Belt team is all that good. Coastal Carolina is 3–0 and looking to generate some conversation. Meanwhile, ULL’s 2–0 and has a chance to really twist the knife on some in-state competition, with Tulane coming off back-to-back losses to Power Four teams even amidst a reported dalliance with the New Pac-12.

Eastern Washington at Nevada
Youngstown State at Pitt
Monmouth at FIU
Northern Iowa at Hawaii
Villanova at Maryland

I don’t think Pitt should really be worried about Youngstown State, who was supposed to be a solid FCS team but lost last weekend to Duquesne. Then again, Pitt is Pitt, and the Penguins could drag them into the muck, and it doesn’t have to be an upset for it to hurt. Even a close game would tell us something bad about these Panthers.

Nevada should end up ok as well, with Eastern Washington not what it used to be and Nevada generally competitive so far in the young Jeff Choate era. But, the Movelor spread’s under ten, and Nevada did get shutout last weekend at Minnesota.

FIU and Hawaii are at legitimate risk. Movelor rates Monmouth the 179th-best team in Division I. It has FIU 180th. UNI, for its part, is a little higher-rated than Hawaii. Neither FCS team is a favorite here, but that’s only because they’re playing on the road.

Maryland should be fine against Villanova, but we’ve got Villanova in the FCS top ten, so don’t take Maryland’s performance lightly. Nova shouldn’t be much worse than NIU.

Yale at Holy Cross
Western Carolina at Montana
Towson at North Dakota State
Furman at William & Mary
Northern Arizona at Incarnate Word

At the FCS level, this is the weekend the Ivies make their season debut. Our model doesn’t make many offseason FCS adjustments, so we won’t pretend to know Yale at an expert level, but Movelor does have them narrowly in the FCS top 25, with Holy Cross narrowly out of it but welcoming a new head coach this year.

Montana’s a big favorite, but WCU isn’t far behind Movelor’s FCS top 25 itself. We’re curious about margin here, and whether Towson—who played Villanova to the wire last weekend—will cast more doubt on NDSU, potentially pushing Montana into realistic national title territory.

Furman and William & Mary are both in our FCS top 25. This is a big crossover between contenders in the SoCon and the CAA, two leagues which have lost their grasp on the MVFC and Big Sky lately but still get seeded like power FCS conferences. This could determine some home-field advantage come playoff season.

NAU’s looking to keep making strides, while UIW continues to hang around in no-man’s land, not a national contender but still a factor because the rest of the Southland is lacking. That’s the biggest FCS game this weekend. That’s the one.

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Plenty more to come as Week 4 begins tomorrow and progresses into the weekend. Thank you, as always, for being here.

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This post was also published at www.thebarkingcrow.com, where you can always find all of Joe Stunardi, Stuart McGrath, and NIT Stu’s work.