College Football Morning: Does Alabama vs. Georgia Matter Less? (Week 5 Preview)
We're not talking about Nick Saban.
Georgia goes to Alabama this weekend in what should, by rights, be the second-biggest game of college football’s regular season, trailing only Georgia’s trip to Texas in a few weeks. You could argue this should even be the biggest game of the year. With Texas still hunting its moment, Ohio State only just now wrapping up preseason play, and Michigan off learning how to walk again, Georgia and Alabama are the sport’s two greatest powers right now, even if neither can currently call themselves the reigning national champion.
Is this as big a game as that status implies?
I’d personally say no. There is anticipation, but it’s not breathless. There is excitement, but there is very little fear. The way this game would have worked in a previous season is that the winner would have been the national championship favorite, possibly until a rematch in the SEC Championship, while the loser would have to lick its wounds, rally, and hope like hell it could earn that rematch opportunity. Instead, this feels more like a regular season NFL game between the 49ers and the Chiefs. It’s fun, but it’s more a preview of a future game that might count than it is a game that counts by itself.
The stakes are still high. Our model runs 10,000 simulations every time we ask it to, and in its most recent set, the winner is nearly assured of a playoff berth. 95% of the time, the team who wins this game makes the College Football Playoff. For the loser, the number is 72%. That isn’t the biggest difference when measured by percentage points, but it’s meaningful. One is 19-in-20. The other is not quite 3-in-4.
Still…the other is nearly 3-in-4. Alabama and Georgia can each spare a loss here. If the game is decided by a lot of points, then yes, we’ll have learned something, but if it’s a good, close contest? We might come out of it saying, “That was fun,” and little else.
A game which matters less than it would have in the olden days is a rarity this season. Unfortunately, it’ll get more common as we get used to new conference alignments and the expanded playoff. Were Tennessee or Mississippi to play Georgia on Saturday, it would feel existential for Tennessee or Mississippi, a chance for the bridesmaid to grab status as the bride. In a few years, when Tennessee and Mississippi have maybe each made the 12-team playoff more often than not? That game will feel like the Ravens playing the Steelers—big, but not existential. With Texas, the situation doubles. The Longhorns/Bulldogs game is huge this year because it’s the first between the two in this new SEC era and because we’re still not used to nationally contending Texas. We will get used to both those things, though, and with fading novelty will come fading excitement.
Is it bad how in this realm, college football more closely resembles the NFL? Yes. College football should be distinct from the NFL. The more alike the two seasons feel, the less reason there’ll be to care about the sport with the poorer quality of play. Hopefully, the increased number of playoff-meaningful games makes up for the dulled edge of these titanic clashes.
As for the game itself:
How good is Alabama? Is Georgia ok? Will the Bulldogs show up because they have to? How will Kalen DeBoer and Kirby Smart’s staffs gameplan against one another? Is Jalen Milroe a Heisman favorite? Is Carson Beck?
This game is primarily a measuring stick, not the biggest game itself but a set of tea leaves forecasting that eventual biggest game. But as far as measuring sticks go, it’s a big one. The question we want to answer, regarding both these teams, is the extent to which they’re converting all their talent into quality football. We’ve seen great things from these programs. We’ve seen good things. Early in this season, where is each of Georgia and Alabama on that spectrum between satisfactory and overpowering?
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The (Other) Big Ones
Louisville at Notre Dame
Want a weird playoff conversation? Keep an eye on Notre Dame. The Irish’s toughest remaining opponents are USC and Louisville, in some order. Win this one, and Notre Dame is back to likelier to make the playoff than miss it, checking in at 55% playoff-likely in those simulations independent of this week’s other results. Lose, and the Irish aren’t entirely out of it, but they need to win out and they need others to help out. 55% with a win, 13% with a loss.
For Louisville, this is the arrival moment, if they can take advantage. They knocked off Notre Dame last fall, but they couldn’t capitalize on the momentum it generated. Now into the Brohm brothers’ second year, don’t expect them to make the same mistake twice. Louisville is a solid, well-rounded, well-coached team conveniently best exemplified by their quarterback, Tyler Shough, who’s yet to throw an interception. He’s shown a lot of polish, but a Xavier Watts and Benjamin Morrison-led secondary is going to be a lot tougher test for him than Georgia Tech’s, Jacksonville State’s, or Austin Peay’s.
Win on the road in South Bend, and Louisville joins Clemson and Miami among the ACC favorites. Win on the road in South Bend, and Louisville’s likely around the edge of the top ten in most rating systems. Win on the road in South Bend, and Louisville’s 51% likely to make the playoff, getting thrillingly close to “take care of business” territory. These guys do play both Clemson and Miami in the regular season. But they get Miami at home.
Lose, and Louisville’s not eliminated from anything. They still have a playoff shot (21%), and they’re still undefeated in ACC play. Even taking Notre Dame down to the wire, frustrating as this may sound to Cards fans, would demonstrate serious progress. Again: I know that’s frustrating to hear. But this Notre Dame team is likely better right now than last year’s was when it came to Kentucky. And part of becoming a great program is playing well over and over again.
Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Would you rather be the former conference contender who was mostly shut down by the conference favorite on your home field? Or the one who got thrown into a blender last week by a middle-of-the-pack team on the road?
Kansas State is probably the better team here. Movelor and SP+ are in agreement. FPI differs. Betting markets have the Wildcats favored by a handful in Manhattan.
Like a less dramatic version of Notre Dame under Marcus Freeman, Chris Klieman’s time at K-State has been marked by catastrophic failures accompanied by very good football. If the trend holds, Kansas State should get this win and get out of the game still in serious Big 12 contention. If they lose, the playoff dream is effectively dead. There’ll be some soul-searching, especially if Avery Johnson struggles again. For Oklahoma State, expectations probably shouldn’t be quite as high, but it wouldn’t be out of character for the Cowboys to find themselves in the thick of the Big 12 picture. It’s the Cowboy thing to do.
K-State conditional playoff probabilities: 28% with a win, 3% with a loss.
Oklahoma State: 27% with a win, 3% with a loss.
Washington State at Boise State
Washington State’s earned respect but hasn’t received it. Boise State hasn’t earned it, but they’re getting it. Boise State’s the better team, and they’re playing at home in what should be the keynote address during the late night slate.
Ashton Jeanty and John Mateer are two of college football’s best characters this season, the first a short, strong speedster bursting through the generous holes of a beefy offensive line; the second a swashbuckler of a quarterback who can end either team’s chances but thankfully is more accustomed to slaying opponents rather than his own kind. It’s offense against offense. Neither defense is much. It’s aspiring Pac-12 power against aspiring Pac-12 power. At the moment, these are probably the two best teams in the future league.
Boise State already has the loss to Oregon, and while that’ll likely age well, it eliminates the Broncos’ margin for error when it comes to achieving their primary goal, which is making the playoff. Lose, and they drop to 6% playoff-likely. Win, and they rise to 25%.
Washington State can’t win a conference title, so their only chance to make the field is as an at-large. With only two power conference opponents (three if you count Oregon State), and with no respect from the Associated Press (many of whose voters are old men who don’t have Peacock subscriptions and therefore dismissed the Apple Cup), Wazzu needs this one. Our model doesn’t know about the AP disrespect. It treats WSU as half a power conference team. It has the Cougars 42% playoff-likely with a victory, but only 7% with a loss. Both those probabilities are probably too optimistic.
The Ones With Playoff Impact
Mississippi State at Texas
Kentucky at Mississippi
Texas is unlikely to lose this, and they’ll have chances to prove themselves later down the line. There isn’t much for them to play for here besides a desire to get to 1–0 in SEC play in their inaugural season. They get next week off ahead of Oklahoma and Georgia, which makes me suspect they’ll roll with Arch Manning for much if not all of the game. That introduces more risk—even the biggest Manning believers in the short term must acknowledge he brings higher variance than Quinn Ewers, and as a big favorite, variance is bad—but it’ll more likely keep the good times rolling in Austin. Notably, even in the very limited simulations in which Texas loses this game, the Longhorns make the playoff 61% of the time.
For Mississippi, Kentucky is a great test. Lane Kiffin’s offense gets to face a real measuring stick while the defense eases into the SEC schedule. As with Texas, this isn’t do-or-die (Mississippi still has a 28% playoff chance in simulations with an upset), but it’ll tell us a lot about Mississippi’s ceiling.
Ohio State at Michigan State
Oregon at UCLA
Illinois at Penn State
Minnesota at Michigan
Wisconsin at USC
It's a busy weekend in the Big Ten, if not necessarily a big one. In none of these games is the playoff contender less than a 9.5-point favorite, and even Michigan is a 9.5-point favorite in a game expected to produce a final score around 23–13, not exactly a nailbiter. (Some of the closeness comes from the expectation it’ll be low-scoring.)
Since we’ve mentioned that one, we’ll start with that one: Is Minnesota’s defense for real? Can the Gophers do anything when they have the ball? Is Michigan good enough with Alex Orji under center to not make this one nerve wracking?
If Michigan isn’t any good, USC’s season suddenly looks a lot less promising given that road loss. The good thing for USC this weekend is that Braedyn Locke is not the Badgers’ ideal starting quarterback. Can he get the job done? Potentially. But if USC’s defense is even decent, Wisconsin should have a hard time in this one.
Illinois has a lot of excitement around it, but so does Penn State, and Illinois’s excitement is the kind which accompanies teams who might win ten games, while their hosts are looking for a Big Ten title. This is the only ranked matchup of these five, but it’s right in the middle when it comes to the spread. The Nittany Lions are favored by nearly three touchdowns.
UCLA looked better last weekend. They’ll look to put a scare into their old Pac-8/10/12 foe, one who’s still seeking legitimization as a title threat itself, much like Penn State. Michigan State’s been feisty under Jonathan Smith, and Ohio State hasn’t played many teams yet, but the expectation is for the Spartans to have a lot of trouble getting on the board, even in East Lansing.
For all five contenders on the list, it’s about holding serve. For Illinois more than the other challengers, the shot at a conference leader could earn them entry to the ranks of the playoff hopefuls. The Illini rise to 12% playoff-likely with a victory.
Virginia Tech at Miami
Stanford at Clemson
In the ACC, Miami and Clemson are both looking to keep separating themselves from the ACC pack.
Miami goes first, playing Virginia Tech at home on Friday night. They’ve been different so far this year. They haven’t only been talented. They’ve played great, great football. FPI and SP+ both have the Hurricanes as the seventh-best team in the country. Even Movelor, built to be more cautious and focused on the long term than those two, already has the U up to twelfth. With the Hokies 0–2 against power conference teams, they’re approaching desperation. It hasn’t been pretty for Virginia Tech this year, but that’s all the more reason for fear around a Miami program who hasn’t exactly executed in games it should win in recent years.
Stanford’s off to a good start in Troy Taylor’s second year, but this is probably going to be a moment which welcomes the Cardinal to reality. Clemson isn’t what they once were, but Clemson is strong, fast, and talented, and they’ve been clicking lately.
Arizona at Utah
Iowa State at Houston
BYU at Baylor
Colorado at UCF
The update on Cam Rising this week is that he’s been cleared to play, but Kyle Whittingham wants to see him throw the ball well. Otherwise, Isaac Wilson will remain the first-string guy.
Utah can certainly beat Arizona with Wilson under center. Arizona has a lot of vulnerabilities, and the game’s in Salt Lake City. Still, Utah would rather have Rising in there. Wilson introduces more risk, and having just gained clear leadership in the Big 12 race, Utah wants to keep it. With a victory, the Utes climb to 51% playoff-likely, joining the ranks of a lot of top-ten teams. With a loss, all’s not lost—16%—but an opportunity to stay atop the ledger will have been missed, just like many used to be missed in Utah’s Pac-12 era.
Down in Texas, Iowa State’s done a lot already but is yet to play a Big 12 game. They’ll visit Houston, looking to show that the offense is more than it was in Iowa City a few weeks ago. The Cyclones are a fringe Big 12 contender right now, and Houston is probably the worst team in the league, so even with a win, don’t look for ISU to run toe-to-toe with Utah. That said, a win lifts them to 19% playoff-likely. With a loss, they’d be nearly eliminated (4%).
BYU should be riding high after their blowout of Kansas State. Baylor should be desperate after their collapse in Boulder. Is it a trap game for the Cougars? Betting markets seem to expect as much. FPI and Movelor both have BYU favored, but markets are running even further to Baylor’s side than SP+. In terms of playoff consequence, BYU can get to 25% with a win but would drop to 6% with a loss. Interestingly, that 25% number is unaffected by Kansas State’s result, although our model doesn’t consider head-to-head tiebreakers just yet.
Down in Orlando, we’ve got a lot of black and gold. Like Iowa State and BYU, UCF’s a fringe Big 12 player. Win, and they’re up to 20% playoff-likely. Lose, and they too are nearly out of the race, down at 4%. For those wondering: SP+ doesn’t have these teams as being as offense-heavy as they’re maybe perceived to be.
Ball State at James Madison
Fresno State at UNLV
Liberty at Appalachian State
The Group of Five brings a fascinating offering to this week’s table, with maybe the most attention on Fresno State’s visit to UNLV after starting Rebels quarterback Matthew Sluka left the team this week amidst an NIL dispute.
Fresno State already has a loss, but it came in the Big House against Michigan. Get to 2–0 in the Mountain West and the Bulldogs are a serious playoff factor, checking in at 12%. UNLV is more in James Madison’s territory. The Rebels, who’ve already beaten Kansas and Houston, get to 21% with a victory. (We should note: Though the committee would likely consider Sluka’s absence, UNLV would probably have to play notably worse from here out for it to really sully their résumé in the committee’s eyes. If they do that, they probably won’t be in playoff contention anyway.)
Speaking of James Madison, JMU hosts Ball State on Saturday. The Dukes are mostly trying to take care of business, but part of that is starting to put up some crooked numbers on teams other than UNC. If James Madison’s going to win a head-to-head with Boise State or UNLV at the same record, they’ll probably need to do it based on the dominance of their victories, not the strength of their nonconference opponents.
Finally, Liberty. Perceptions of the Flames’ inevitability are vastly overstating that situation. Liberty has a lot of work to do. Even with a win on the road in Boone, they’re only 31% playoff-likely as they approach the halfway point of their regular season.
The Interesting Ones
Army at Temple
Navy at UAB
USF at Tulane
The AAC brings a lot of intrigue this weekend. Army and Navy are both unbeaten. USF and Tulane have each taken a couple knocks but still harbor ambitions of winning the conference.
Washington at Rutgers
Maryland at Indiana
Washington and Rutgers play a fun one on Friday, with the Scarlet Knights off to a 3–0 start. Win, and we’ll put more respect on their name. Rutgers gets to 11% playoff-likely with a victory.
Indiana’s in a similar respect-seeking boat, though the public’s getting hyped about the Hoosiers. They host a Maryland team we think is probably competitive. FPI and SP+ are higher on these guys than Movelor, but for what it’s worth, our model has them only 4% playoff-likely even if they win.
Oklahoma at Auburn
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Desperate times feature desperate teams in the SEC, as all four of Oklahoma, Auburn, Arkansas, and Texas A&M try to get right and/or build on some potential. The big story here is that Oklahoma’s benching Jackson Arnold and rolling with Michael Hawkins Jr., a three-star freshman. Whether Brent Venables has truly lost faith in Arnold or is more trying to send a message to somebody—Arnold, his team as a whole, or offensive coordinator Seth Littrell—is unclear.
North Carolina at Duke
Florida State at SMU
And, down in the ACC, we’ve got classic rivalries like UNC/Duke and Florida State/SMU.
Duke’s still unbeaten. SMU would like to sneak into the conference picture. Florida State and UNC would each, of course, like to start changing their broader narrative.
The FCS
(The rankings here come from Movelor, not from the FCS poll of record, which we do not respect. Because Movelor’s a rating system, that means we’re ranking how good teams are, not necessarily who’s accomplished the most.)
#10 Southern Illinois at #7 South Dakota
#2 North Dakota State at #25 Illinois State
#8 Sacramento State at #14 Northern Arizona
#4 Idaho at #22 UC Davis
We’ve got some good stuff in the MVFC and Big Sky. If you’re looking for national title threats, keep an eye on how NDSU and Idaho perform on the road against quality competition. Those are more the ones we’re watching than South Dakota or Sacramento State.
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Resources from our model:
Bark.
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This post was also published at www.thebarkingcrow.com, where you can always find all of Joe Stunardi, Stuart McGrath, and NIT Stu’s work.
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