College Football Morning: Alabama Ate the Rat Poison (Week 6 Recap)
The long-term danger in Tuscaloosa, and Tennessee's not there yet.
Not all upsets are created equal. Tennessee’s loss was bad for Tennessee, but it wasn’t embarrassing. The same would have been true for Miami had the Hurricanes not come back against Cal. Arkansas and Cal are decent enough teams. Vanderbilt is not. I’m sorry to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is improving. It is so hard to improve when you’re stuck behind the SEC pack. But it is still embarrassing for Alabama to lose to Vanderbilt. I hope that isn’t rude to say out loud.
Last week, we pontificated about the Tuscaloosa transition from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer. We talked on-field and off-field. We dissected different kinds of discipline. We compared Saban to the Hoover Dam. Ultimately, we walked back our January skepticism of what DeBoer could do at Alabama.
Wish we hadn’t done that!
If Alabama–Georgia showed us that Kalen DeBoer can recruit and reminded us how well Kalen DeBoer can coach football, Alabama–Vanderbilt illustrated how hard it is to manage the psyches of 17 to 24-year-old athletes. Alabama walked into a cage with a neon sign above it reading, “THIS GAME IS A TRAP.” Vanderbilt shut the door.
Through isolated big plays (the pick six, the strip sack, the punt which pinned Bama inside its own five once the Tide were back within one score), Vanderbilt got Alabama off its game. Through efficient execution (Diego Pavia, what a game), Vanderbilt picked at Alabama’s vulnerabilities. By the end of the sixty minutes, the same Kane Wommack defense which often had Carson Beck in Peterman Mode was losing battles up front to Vanderbilt University, a program which has now won three SEC games midway through its coach’s fourth year. Vanderbilt made Alabama’s secondary bleed. Once it did, the Tide front seven fell apart. Pavia’s second down pass to Sedrick Alexander broke the camel’s back. On the final plays of the game, Vanderbilt made Alabama quit.
Nick Saban’s teams rose and fell. But the discipline was always there, and we don’t mean discipline in terms of keeping players out of trouble, although that’s included. By discipline, we mean focus and preparation. To borrow a Saban phrase, we mean not eating the rat poison. Kalen DeBoer’s first Alabama team downed that rat poison like it was Gatorade.
In and of itself, losing to Vanderbilt isn’t the end of the world for Alabama. They’ll still probably make the playoff. They’re still a national championship contender. Their program is still recruiting well and striking fear into the hearts of opponents. Poor focus—the Tide’s seeming downfall this weekend—is a correctible offense. But one thing we’ve talked about a lot is Alabama’s booster ecosystem, a collection of egos who’ve bit their tongues for a long, long time. Alabama’s biggest wallets belong to a group of people who mostly earned their money through impressive pursuits. In another impressive pursuit, they then built the best college football dynasty of the century so far. Amidst that, they took a backseat to one of the greatest coaches college football has ever known, relegating themselves to role players because they trusted their head coach. Was that easy for them? Of course not. Were some of the proudest people in the South going to take DeBoer as seriously as they took Saban? Never. This is why last night is so especially bad for Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer doesn’t have Kirby Smart’s credibility yet with his backers. DeBoer may have just nuked his grace period.
Greg Byrne is a very, very good boss for DeBoer to have at this moment, but the moment’s tough nonetheless. DeBoer has wedged himself into a difficult place. DeBoer has invited an inflection point. Disarray is a risky thing in the college football world. Alabama is not inevitable. Mike Shula and Dennis Franchione and Mike DuBose showed very clearly how comfortably Alabama can fit into the middle of the SEC.
For this season, Alabama is likely fine. The Tide get a get-right game against South Carolina and then a tough but winnable pair against Tennessee and Missouri which stand a good chance of filling back up the tank. But losses like these stick around. How many times do you think Alabama will be reminded that it lost to Vanderbilt?
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Talking Tennessee
Per our model, Alabama’s playoff probability was significantly damaged but remains healthy. They went from 97% to 79%. The latter is still the fourth-best number in the nation, and they’re projecting to land as the 6-seed in today’s bracketology. Going from 32-in-33 to 4-in-5 is a big drop, but 83% to 48% is more meaningful. Alabama went from “they will make the playoff” to “they will probably make the playoff.” Tennessee went from “they will probably make the playoff” to coin toss territory.
As we said above, there isn’t much shame in losing to Arkansas. The Hogs are a solid team, a team whose disproportionally bad record in recent one-score games has artificially deflated perceptions. Movelor, our model’s rating system, rates them the 30th-best team in the country. Not a bad team, especially at Razorback Stadium Presented by Walmart.
The problem for Tennessee is that we were looking at the Vols saying, “Are they one of the best teams in the country?” and immediately upon getting to the edge of that territory, they went tumbling back down the hill. Maybe they really underachieved yesterday, but it didn’t look like that. Instead, Tennessee looked a lot like the team they were expected to be preseason. Good but not great. That’s a problem, because the Volunteers still have to play Alabama, Georgia, and a Kentucky team who’s snuck into Movelor’s top fifteen. In an SEC season where Texas is likelier to go 8–0 than 6–2, losses outside the top ten are damaging.
Tennessee’s average final regular season record in our model’s simulations is now 9.4–2.6. Scenarios are many, but the simplest expectation is now that 10–2 gets them in and 9–3 doesn’t. It would be ok for rising Tennessee to miss the playoff, but it’d be a disappointment, especially with the athletic department commanding a lot of press with “we’re breaking through” flavor. Tennessee built high expectations for Josh Heupel. Meeting those against an SEC schedule is hard.
For Arkansas and Vanderbilt, the respective expectations are now 7–5 and 5–7. Missed opportunities against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M sting for the Pigs, who could be getting a ton of playoff buzz right about now but are instead hoping to nab a ReliaQuest Bowl bid. For Vandy, the fact a bowl is on the table after losing to Georgia State is a magnificent development. The ‘Dores will have plenty of rat poison in their own hallways these next six days, but even stealing one more SEC win would make this Clark Lea’s best season yet in Nashville.
Elsewhere in the SEC, we got our confirmation that Missouri is not a team to be taken seriously at a national level. Texas A&M played its best game of the season and played it with Connor Weigman under center, a welcome development for Mike Elko’s program. Weigman’s ceiling is probably higher than Marcel Reed’s.
Florida got a solid win over UCF at home, Billy Napier keeping the roof from caving in for at least another week. (I wonder if Tennessee was looking ahead to Florida, recognizing its own recent history in the series.)
Mississippi stymied South Carolina, calling attention to a defensive unit that isn’t what we think of when we think of Lane Kiffin football.
Georgia didn’t draw much notice as they dispatched Auburn, which is exactly what Georgia needed right now. Back on the rails. All is well enough in Athens, with the Texas trip now two weeks away.
The B1G Three
No disrespect intended towards Indiana. Movelor’s probably still low on them, given both SP+ and FPI have the Hoosiers in the top 20. (Movelor’s great at not chasing ghosts, but sometimes it fails to chase real improvement with the proper degree of aggression. We’re working on a fix for this for next year and think we have a good, simple solution, but it will be an offseason change.) Still, top-20 isn’t top-10. Indiana could win eleven games, play for the Big Ten Championship, and make the College Football Playoff. But Indiana isn’t going to win the Big Ten this year or win a playoff game. That’s about as likely as Vanderbilt upsetting Alabama. It’s crazy and awesome that we are calling 11–3 a realistic possibility. We’re not poo-pooing what Curt Cignetti’s doing and has done. We’re just trying to talk about Michigan and USC losing, and we feel the need to guard our haunches from pitchforks while we do it.
We’ve been reliable voices of optimism this year regarding Michigan and USC. We’ve pointed out how good Michigan’s defensive personnel is and talked about how often Lincoln Riley’s quarterbacks win the Heisman. To be fair, too, we’ve been voices of optimism about Washington as well. But yesterday’s losses for Michigan and USC were different from those they picked up earlier in the year. Games at Washington and Minnesota are the sort which conference contenders need to win. This year, they’re the kinds of games playoff contenders need to win. Michigan’s offense didn’t do its defense many favors late in the game, but Michigan’s defense still let an underwhelming Washington offense pick up six yards per play in crunch time. USC’s performance was similar, the defense cratering when it mattered while Miller Moss turned in the worst game of his young career. Michigan and USC aren’t bad, but they’re not good enough that we need to pay attention to them anymore as anything other than long-term curiosities, prominent brands now trying to climb their way back to playing prominent football. USC gets a chance to tear Penn State down next week, and Michigan could get a “ranked” win over Illinois later this month. But those games are for the right to hang around the top 25. These teams are not presently playoff threats, even with a 12-team format which expects a heavy Big Ten presence.
So, then:
There’s still a clear pecking order here. Ohio State pulled away handily from Iowa. Oregon had a few major self-inflicted wounds and still beat Michigan State without any drama. Penn State wasn’t dominant, but its outcome was never in doubt against UCLA. We finally get a good Ohio State test next week in Eugene. It’s a good Oregon test as well. Until it gets here, we feel content in our understanding of this conference.
Miami Is ACC Good. So Is SMU.
Cam Ward is a good quarterback. Cam Ward is a lot of fun. Cam Ward is not transcendent, or even a great college QB. As a team, Miami’s in a similar boat, perhaps minus the “fun” part. (John Ruiz’s business situation is bad for Miami in a few ways, but the biggest is that he’s the one leading the new stadium charge. Somehow, the plague of half-empty Hard Rock follows the Canes even when they’re playing on the road.)
For the second straight week, Miami looked exactly like what we expected them to be preseason: Talented, chaotic, and an inefficient final product. They were able to pull off another comeback, and Virginia Tech and Cal are probably top-half ACC teams, but these are not games any of the ten best teams in the country would have consistent trouble winning. Miami is not a frontrunner by the traditional definition. They don’t quit when they’re behind. But they struggle to outplay mediocrity. That implies some mediocrity on their part as well.
The best conception I can offer of the ACC is that Clemson—who led 17–0 after one quarter in Tallahassee—is the class of the league, for whatever that title is worth, and that Miami, SMU, and Louisville are in the next tier, each hoping they’ll be the one with a chance to upset the Tigers in the conference championship. Miami’s schedule is favorable enough that an at-large playoff bid is possible. SMU’s is too. Louisville’s probably seen that ship sail. The Cards are in a big hole after losing at home to SMU yesterday. Kevin Jennings lit up that defense, and now Louisville will likely need to win at Clemson in addition to beating Miami at home, even if Louisville might be favored in that game.
Duke’s undefeated campaign ended at the hands of Georgia Tech. Pitt’s continued with a win over UNC. College Gameday in Berkeley was a great time. The league’s middle is muddy, and that will probably lead to a lot of teams with conference records around .500, but someone might sneak through and wander into the ACC Championship untouched. Overall, right now, it looks like it’s Clemson and then the other three, with Louisville limping. The point is that you can regard Miami as a better-marketed SMU with a better nonconference performance.
Iowa State Marches On
The Cyclones had another slow start last night, which was scary given Baylor’s own comeback habits. Thankfully for an Iowa State fan in the room, Baylor’s comeback habits work both ways, and by the middle of the fourth quarter the game was out of reach. It’s ISU’s first 5–0 start since 1980, and while Kansas State is still probably the Big 12 favorite, the Cyclones are believably the conference’s second-best team, especially if Cam Rising’s absence continues. The Big 12 is tight enough that it’s uncertain how far being second-best can get a program. Whatever the answer is to that, Iowa State’s in the best place they could hope to occupy.
In a more impressive Big 12 performance, West Virginia smoked Oklahoma State in Stillwater, finishing off any chance at a Cowboy comeback and announcing the Mountaineers’ arrival to “Could they do this??” territory. Both West Virginia’s losses came in nonconference play, and both came to still-undefeated competition (Penn State and Pitt). Next week is suddenly massive in Morgantown. Movelor has Iowa State favored by less than a point. SP+ and FPI are barely more bullish on Matt Campbell’s team.
Arizona ended their brief return to this conference picture, going out the same door they came in. Texas Tech has really pulled it together since their concerning performances to start the year. Joey McGuire’s team’s up to 5–1, they’re alone in first place in the Big 12 at 3–0, and they don’t have to play Kansas State, Utah, or BYU. They haven’t proven themselves a good team, but they’re taking advantage of an advantageous situation so far.
Down Goes JMUNLV
ULM is on the come up, but this was early for a JMU loss in Monroe. Similarly, you better have the best playoff path in the world if you’re going to lose at home to Syracuse, as UNLV did on Friday night. James Madison is still the Sun Belt favorite, and UNLV is still the Mountain West’s second-best team. But the pair wilted, leaving Boise State in the Group of Five driver’s seat even with the one loss, now 4–1 after hanging 49 on Utah State in the first half alone.
Because of that one loss, and because Boise State still has to play UNLV (A), SJSU (A), and Oregon State (H), Boise State’s not an overwhelming playoff favorite. They’re likelier to miss it than make it, and while public opinion’s in their favor (which could be meaningful thanks to fickle Group of Five opinions from the committee), they do have plenty of work to do.
I would worry less about undefeated Army, Navy, and Liberty if I were Boise State and worry more about two-loss Tulane. SP+ is very low on the Green Wave, but FPI and Movelor both have them around the edge of the top 25, only a little bit worse than Boise. Their losses both came to good Power Four teams. They just scored 71 points against UAB, they get Memphis at home, and they only have to play Navy in the regular season. They don’t have to also play Army.
Speaking of Army and Navy, they beat up Tulsa and Air Force, respectively, looking pretty “for real” in the process. San Jose State survived a scare from Nevada that has us doubting the Spartans the most we have this year. Liberty was idle again as Conference USA moves towards its month of weeknight games. Toledo would need a lot to break in their favor, but they’re popping up in some scenarios as well after taking care of business against Miami–Ohio. Oregon State’s in a different category than the Group of Five contenders (no auto-bid path for the Beavers), but they survived Colorado State in a victory that was more concerning than satisfying.
Even More Dakotas
In the FCS world, Weber State threw a big wrench into the Montana–Dakota balance of power, taking down the Griz in Missoula in an overtime classic. Five of the game’s thirteen touchdowns came on plays of 50 yards or longer. Richie Muñoz passed for six touchdowns. Weber State’s back in the playoff mix, and Montana is far behind the national championship tier.
We knew Montana probably wasn’t as good as South Dakota State or North Dakota State. Montana came on strong last year down the stretch, but there were evident flaws, and it took a lot for them to beat a down NDSU team at home in a playoff atmosphere. What we didn’t know was that South Dakota would rise like South Dakota has risen. The Coyotes have now won their three FCS games by an average score of 48–5. Some of that is schedule, but a lot isn’t. Movelor has them up to third in the subdivision, trailing only the Jacks and the Bison. They’ve passed both Montanas, plus Idaho. It’s an MVFC world.
Speaking of Jacks and Bison, South Dakota State stomped Northern Iowa while NDSU avenged last year’s loss to North Dakota, never letting little brother get within a touchdown.
Back in the Big Sky, Idaho held off Northern Arizona on Homecoming Saturday at the Kibbie Dome. Jerry Kramer was the Vandals’ honorary captain. Big win for that team as the tough stretch continues. Next up, they’ve got Montana State, the last undefeated of the serious FCS contenders.
In some other FCS action of interest, Abilene Christian beat Central Arkansas in a potential de facto UAC championship, Harvard edged New Hampshire in a further blow to the CAA’s legitimacy, Towson took down William & Mary in an intra-CAA spat, and Chattanooga won up at ETSU to stay around second chair in the SoCon. The new Movelor FCS Top Ten looks like this, with last week’s ranking in parentheses.
1. South Dakota State (1)
2. North Dakota State (2)
3. South Dakota (5)
4. Montana State (3)
5. Idaho (6)
6. Montana (4)
7. Villanova (7)
8. Northern Arizona (11)
9. Incarnate Word (8)
10. Delaware (15)
South Dakota State would be a 20.2-point neutral-field favorite over Delaware, to give some context on the gap. Delaware’s ineligible for the FCS Playoffs because they’re leaving the FCS, to give some context on Delaware.
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More resources and entertainment from this morning, with Movelor’s Week 7 picks on the way either tonight or tomorrow:
Bark.
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This post was also published at www.thebarkingcrow.com, where you can always find all of Joe Stunardi, Stuart McGrath, and NIT Stu’s work.
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